The local housing market in Colchester, West Mersea and Jaywick

Introduction

This report is aimed at analyzing the local housing market in three sites in; Colchester, West Mersea and Jaywick. The data is sourced from an online database is from findaproperty.com. The report uses confidence intervals, hypothesis test and correlation and regression analysis. The report addresses management questions on the differences in the types of homes available in these areas (type of property, number of bedrooms etc), the comparison of prices of properties in these areas, the comparison of the prices of different types of property and other interesting aspects of the local housing market in the areas mentioned.

Data Analysis

  1. Is there any difference in the types of homes available in these areas (type of property, number of bedrooms etc)?
    • Property areas and number of bedrooms

 

Table-1.1: colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 * bedroom Crosstabulation
bedroom Total
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Count 5 20 10 3 1 1 40
% within Colchester 12.5% 50.0% 25.0% 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 100.0%
% within bedroom 62.5% 55.6% 33.3% 17.6% 14.3% 50.0% 40.0%
% of Total 5.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 40.0%
2 Count 1 9 7 11 1 1 30
% within Mersea, 3.3% 30.0% 23.3% 36.7% 3.3% 3.3% 100.0%
% within bedroom 12.5% 25.0% 23.3% 64.7% 14.3% 50.0% 30.0%
% of Total 1.0% 9.0% 7.0% 11.0% 1.0% 1.0% 30.0%
3 Count 2 7 13 3 5 0 30
% within Jaywick 6.7% 23.3% 43.3% 10.0% 16.7% .0% 100.0%
% within bedroom 25.0% 19.4% 43.3% 17.6% 71.4% .0% 30.0%
% of Total 2.0% 7.0% 13.0% 3.0% 5.0% .0% 30.0%
Total Count 8 36 30 17 7 2 100
% within Colchester=1 ,west mersea=2, jaywick=3 8.0% 36.0% 30.0% 17.0% 7.0% 2.0% 100.0%
% within bedroom 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.0% 36.0% 30.0% 17.0% 7.0% 2.0% 100.0%

 

From table 1.1 above, 50% of the houses in Colchester are 2 bed roomed, 25% are three bed roomed while 12.5% are 1 bed roomed. On the other hand, 7.5% of the houses are 4 bed-roomed while 2.5% of the houses are 5 and 6 bed roomed. In Mersea, 36.7% of the houses are 4 bed-roomed, 30% are 2 bed roomed while 23.3% are 3 bed-roomed. In Jaywick, most of the houses are three bed-roomed (43.3%), 23.3% are 2-bedroomed, while 16.7% are 5 bed-roomed. From the chart below, it is clear that majority of the property in Colchester are 2 bed-roomed, while the majority in West Mersea are 4-bed-roomed and the majority in Jaywick are three bed-roomed. In general (table-1.1), 36.0% of the houses are 2 bed-roomed, 30% are 3 bed-roomed, while 17% are 4 bed-roomed.

 

Table-1.2: Symmetric Measures
Value Asymp. Std. Errora Approx. Tb Approx. Sig.
Interval by Interval Pearson’s R .239 .096 2.434 .017c
Ordinal by Ordinal Spearman Correlation .271 .094 2.783 .006c
N of Valid Cases 100
a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.

b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

c. Based on normal approximation.

 

From table 1.2, the location of properties is positively related to the number of bedrooms. This relationship is weak (.239) but significant (p=.017<0.05).

Test of differences

Stating of Hypothesis

The null and alternative hypothesis as follows;

(No differences exist)

(Existence of differences)

The null hypothesis will be accepted if the difference between the location of property (Colchester, West Mersea or Jaywick) and the number of bedrooms are equal to zero.

Formulation of the analysis

For this analysis, we use 95% confidence interval. In order to see whether differences exist between the location of property and the number of bedrooms, a paired samples test was performed.

 

Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-tailed)
Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
Lower Upper
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 – bedroom -.950 1.242 .124 -1.196 -.704 -7.648 99 .000

 

In this part, we use SPSS to compute the mean (µ) and standard deviation of the differences (s), the standard error (SE) of the mean difference, the degrees of freedom (df), and the t-score test statistic (t). This is a two-tailed test, hence, the p-value is the probability that a t-score with 99 degrees of freedom lies on the extremes of -1.196 < P(t) < -0.704. Given that the P-value (0.000<0.05), we reject the null hypothesis. Hence, indeed there is a significant difference between the location of properties and the number of bedrooms.

  • Property areas and type of property
Tablep-1.2: colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 * flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 Crosstabulation
flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 Total
1 2 3
colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 1 Count 16 20 4 40
% within Colchester 40.0% 50.0% 10.0% 100.0%
% within flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 64.0% 34.5% 23.5% 40.0%
% of Total 16.0% 20.0% 4.0% 40.0%
2 Count 7 20 3 30
% within west mersea 23.3% 66.7% 10.0% 100.0%
% within flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 28.0% 34.5% 17.6% 30.0%
% of Total 7.0% 20.0% 3.0% 30.0%
3 Count 2 18 10 30
% within Jaywick 6.7% 60.0% 33.3% 100.0%
% within flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 8.0% 31.0% 58.8% 30.0%
% of Total 2.0% 18.0% 10.0% 30.0%
Total Count 25 58 17 100
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 25.0% 58.0% 17.0% 100.0%
% within flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 25.0% 58.0% 17.0% 100.0%

 

From the table above, 50% of the properties in Colchester consist of houses, 40% are flats, and 10% are bungalows. On the other hand, 66.37% of the properties in West Mersea are houses, 23.3% are flats and 10% are bungalows. In Jaywick, 60% of the properties are houses, 33.3% are bungalows and 6.7% are flats. In total, 58% of the properties are houses, 25% are flats and 17% are bungalows. The graph below illustrates that houses dominate the property market in all the three areas (Colchester, West Mersea and Jaywick).

 

 

From the results of the correlation analysis, it can be concluded that location of property is moderately associated with the type of property. The association is positive (0.359) and significant (p=0.00<0.05).

Table-1.2.1 Paired Samples Correlations
N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 & flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 100 .359 .000

 

 

In table-1.2.2 below, the p-value is the probability that a t-score with 99 degrees of freedom lies on the extremes of -.189 < P(t) < 0.149. Given that the P-value (0.814>0.05), we accept the null hypothesis. Hence, indeed there is no significant difference between the location of properties and the type of property.

 

Table-1.2.2: Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-tailed)
Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
Lower Upper
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 – flat=1, house=2, bungalow=3 -.020 .853 .085 -.189 .149 -.235 99 .815

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.3 Location of property and Parking

 

Table-1.3: colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 * Parking Yes=1, No=2 Crosstabulation
Parking Yes=1, No=2 Total
1 2
1 Count 22 18 40
% within Colchester 55.0% 45.0% 100.0%
% within Parking Yes=1, No=2 28.6% 78.3% 40.0%
% of Total 22.0% 18.0% 40.0%
2 Count 26 4 30
% within west Mersea 86.7% 13.3% 100.0%
% within Parking Yes=1, No=2 33.8% 17.4% 30.0%
% of Total 26.0% 4.0% 30.0%
3 Count 29 1 30
% within Jaywick 96.7% 3.3% 100.0%
% within Parking Yes=1, No=2 37.7% 4.3% 30.0%
% of Total 29.0% 1.0% 30.0%
Total Count 77 23 100
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 77.0% 23.0% 100.0%
% within Parking Yes=1, No=2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 77.0% 23.0% 100.0%

From table 1.3 above, 55% of the real estate properties in Colchester have parking spaces while 45% do not have. In West Mersea, 86.7% of the properties have parking spaces while 13.3% do not have. In Jaywick, 96.7% of the properties have parking, while just 3.3% of these properties do not have parking. In general, 77% of the properties have parking spaces, while 23% do not have parking spaces. This is graphically illustrated by the bar chart below.

 

The paired sample test shows that there is a significant difference between location of property and existence of parking spaces.

 

Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-tailed)
Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
Lower Upper
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 – Parking Yes=1, No=2 .670 1.083 .108 .455 .885 6.187 99 .000

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paired Samples Correlations
N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 & Parking Yes=1, No=2 100 -.421 .000

 

Looking at the correlation results, it is clear that property location is negatively associated with existence of parking spaces. The relationship is negative and significant.

1.4 Location of property and presence of a Garden

Table-1.4: colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 * Garden Yes=1, No=2 Crosstabulation
Garden Yes=1, No=2 Total
1 2
colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 1 Count 25 15 40
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 62.5% 37.5% 100.0%
% within Garden Yes=1, No=2 32.9% 62.5% 40.0%
% of Total 25.0% 15.0% 40.0%
2 Count 25 5 30
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 83.3% 16.7% 100.0%
% within Garden Yes=1, No=2 32.9% 20.8% 30.0%
% of Total 25.0% 5.0% 30.0%
3 Count 26 4 30
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 86.7% 13.3% 100.0%
% within Garden Yes=1, No=2 34.2% 16.7% 30.0%
% of Total 26.0% 4.0% 30.0%
Total Count 76 24 100
% within colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 76.0% 24.0% 100.0%
% within Garden Yes=1, No=2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 76.0% 24.0% 100.0%

From the data, 62.5% of the properties in Colchester have gardens, while 37.5% do not have gardens. On the other hand, 83.3% of properties in West Mersrea have gardens and 16.7% do not have gardens. In Jaywick, 86.7% of the properties have gardens while 13.3% do not have gardens. In general, 76% of the properties have gardens, while 24% do not have gardens.

 

Tble-1.4.1: Paired Samples Correlations
N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 colchester=1 ,west mesreas=2, jaywick=3 & Garden Yes=1, No=2 100 -.242 .015

Correlation results indicate a weak negative relationship between property location and presence of gardens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. How do the prices of properties in these areas compare?

 

 

 

 

Figure 2 shows that the average price of property in West Mersea is highest followed by Colchester and Jaywick. The figures are indicated in the labels.

  1. How do the prices of different types of property compare

 

In Fig-3, it is clear that the price of house in highest in all the three locations, as compared to that of Flats and bungalows. The trend is followed by prices of bungalows and then that of flats. This is a normal result given the assumption on real estate properties.

 

 

  1. Are there any other interesting aspects of the local housing market?

 

Regression model

 

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 .670a .449 .444 97139.245
a. Predictors: (Constant), bedroom

 

In this part, a regression model was developed to predict future prices based on number of bedrooms. It is clear that number of bedrooms is significantly correlated with price of properties. From the model, R Square is 0.449, showing a positive relationship. The coefficient table shows that the bedroom coefficient is significant but the constant is not significant.

 

ANOVAb
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 7.540E11 1 7.540E11 79.911 .000a
Residual 9.247E11 98 9.436E9
Total 1.679E12 99
a. Predictors: (Constant), bedroom

b. Dependent Variable: Price

 

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) -1916.080 26261.282 -.073 .942
bedroom 76528.765 8560.933 .670 8.939 .000
a. Dependent Variable: Price

 

 

Conclusion

In general (table-1.1), 36.0% of the houses are 2 bed-roomed, 30% are 3 bed-roomed, while 17% are 4 bed-roomed.  From a tow tailed test, there is a significant difference between the location of properties and the number of bedrooms. It is clear that houses dominate the property market in all the three areas (Colchester, West Mersea and Jaywick). In addition, there is no significant difference between the location of properties and the type of property.  In general, 77% of the properties have parking spaces, while 23% do not have parking spaces. Looking at the correlation results, it is clear that property location is negatively associated with existence of parking spaces. The relationship is negative and significant. Generally, 76% of the properties have gardens, while 24% do not have gardens. The average price of property in West Mersea is highest followed by Colchester and Jaywick. The figures are indicated in the labels. It is clear that the price of house in highest in all the three locations, as compared to that of Flats and bungalows. The trend is followed by prices of bungalows and then that of flats. This is a normal result given the assumption on real estate properties. In the final part, a regression model was developed to predict future prices based on number of bedrooms. From the model, R Square is 0.449, showing a positive relationship. The coefficient table shows that the bedroom coefficient is significant but the constant is not significant.

 

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